Outlook on Tech & Web3 M&A

Our perspective on deal drivers, timing, and why we’re ready

Market snapshot: real activity, unevenly distributed

Fragmentation is extreme. CoinGecko is currently tracking ~19k cryptocurrencies (with tens of thousands more long-tail or inactive), while DeFi analytics platforms track thousands of live protocols across hundreds of chains. This breadth indicates opportunity but also duplication and sub-scale projects ripe for roll-ups. (CoinGecko)

Usage has concentrated into a few high-velocity venues. Perpetual DEXs crossed $1T in monthly volume in Sept 2025, a sign that certain Web3 “pipes” have found product–market fit and will use M&A to add features, licenses, and geographies. (FinanceFeeds)

Builders never left, just matured. Electric Capital’s latest developer study shows ~23.6k monthly active open-source crypto developers (Dec 2024), with experienced (>2 years) devs at all-time highs. A healthier base than peak-hype vintages. Translation: integration and professionalization beats greenfield proliferation from here. (Developer Report)

Capital is selective. 2024 crypto VC was flat to slightly down vs. 2023 by deal value, with fewer, larger checks into infrastructure; 2025 has seen rebounds in specific quarters, but deal counts remain subdued, pushing smaller teams to consider strategic exits. (PitchBook)

Why M&A now: three structural catalysts

Funding normalization → necessity deals. After two cautious years, many Web3 SMEs face shorter runways and higher proof bars. PitchBook/Messari data show 2024’s lower deal counts despite periodic value rebounds; that mix historically precedes consolidation waves in frontier tech. (PitchBook)

Cash-rich consolidators vs. sub-scale innovators. Publicly listed platforms now hold substantial liquid resources. Coinbase ended Q2’25 with ~$7.5B cash & equivalents and ~$9.3B in “USD resources” (cash + net USDC), ample capacity for selective M&A/licensing. Expect similar dynamics from other profitable venues and service providers. (Q4 CDN)

Regulatory clarity in Europe (MiCA). MiCA entered into force in 2024 with phased application (stablecoins from 30 June 2024; broader CASP rules from 30 Dec 2024). With guidance packages finalizing in 2025 and national transitional windows, we anticipate passportable licenses to become a core asset, driving buy-vs-build decisions for entrants targeting the EU market. (Squire Patton Boggs)

Evidence of an early up-cycle in crypto M&A record quarterly pace.

Architect Partners reported Q1’25 set a new high with 61 announced crypto M&A transactions, including multiple $100M+ deals, a clear acceleration versus late-2024. While crypto-native, the pattern mirrors classic industry roll-ups when funding tightens and revenue concentrates. (Architect Partners)

Category leaders expanding horizontally. Alongside organic growth, top exchanges and infra providers are adding licenses, security capabilities, and payments rails, areas likely to drive near-term acquisitions of SME targets across the EU and CEE. (Architect Partners)

Where we see near-term deal flow (SME focus)

Trading infrastructure & brokerage (perps/clearing, risk, liquidity, market data): revenue-visible, compliance-intensive, synergistic with licensed platforms. (FinanceFeeds)

Security / compliance tooling (wallet security, KYT/AML, monitoring): mission-critical and increasingly mandated under MiCA supervisory guidelines. (Regulation Tomorrow)

Payments & stablecoin rails (on/off-ramp, merchant acquiring, issuer tooling): beneficiaries of MiCA clarity; buyers will prize EU-ready stacks and CASP authorizations. (Squire Patton Boggs)

RWA and infra middleware (tokenization, custody connectors, oracles): fewer, larger buyers seeking feature completeness and enterprise go-to-market. (CoinGecko)

Why us (and why CEE + Warsaw)Web3-native expertise

Our team has operated and advised across crypto market structure (exchanges, custody, staking, DeFi analytics). We understand token and equity cap tables, regulatory perimeter (MiCA/DORA/DAC8), and the mechanics of combining fiat-licensed entities with on-chain businesses, crucial for valuation, risk, and closing certainty. (Cinco Días)

SME dealcraft, not just megadeals. We specialize in sub-€150m transactions, exactly where today’s Web3 consolidation is happening. We’re adept at identifying accretive bolt-ons (tech, teams, licenses) and structuring creative consideration (cash, equity, token economics earn-outs) that align incentives under MiCA.

CEE vantage point, EU passport. From Warsaw we access a deep, technical founder pool across Poland, the Baltics, and the broader CEE, while helping acquirers passport compliant services across the EU. That combination shortens integration timelines and expands TAM on Day 1. (CSSF)

What this means for founders & acquirers

If you’ve built differentiated infra, security, or payments components but feel Series A/B is out of reach, strategic M&A can be the faster route to scale and with EU compliance priced in. We run targeted processes with pre-qualified buyers to protect confidentiality and optimize strategic fit.

Acquirers (buy-side). With usage concentrating (e.g., $1T+ monthly perps volume), it’s time to buy capabilities and licenses rather than rebuild them, especially where time-to-market and regulatory approvals are the bottleneck. Our pipeline spans the CEE and EU tested teams with production code and clear compliance paths. (FinanceFeeds)

Bottom line

‍Web3 today looks like many frontier industries just before their M&A S-curve: fragmented supply, concentrated demand, tighter funding, and rising regulatory clarity. The data already show record quarterly M&A counts and capital concentration, conditions that typically precede 2–3 years of elevated consolidation. We’re built for this exact moment and for the companies, across the CEE and EU, poised to define the next chapter of on-chain finance (Architect Partners).

‍Sources
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‍DeFi volumes and concentration trends; September 2025 perps DEX volume >$1T. (FinanceFeeds)
Ecosystem fragmentation: CoinGecko actively tracks ~19k cryptocurrencies; DeFiLlama tracks thousands of protocols across hundreds of chains. (CoinGecko)
Developer base: Electric Capital Developer Report (Dec 2024)—~23.6k monthly active devs; experienced devs at all-time highs. (Developer Report)
Funding dynamics: 2024 flat/down vs. 2023; 2025 selective rebound and capital concentration. (PitchBook)
M&A momentum: Architect Partners Q1’25—61 announced crypto M&A transactions; multiple $100M+ deals. (Architect Partners)
Cash-rich acquirers: Coinbase Q2’25—$7.5B cash & equivalents; $9.3B USD resources (cash + net USDC). (Q4 CDN)
EU regulation: MiCA phased application—stablecoin rules from 30 Jun 2024; CASP regime from 30 Dec 2024; ongoing ESMA guidance in 2025; national transitions through 2025. (CSSF)

Our perspective on deal drivers, timing, and why we’re ready

Market snapshot: exponential growth of demand for computing power

Power bottlenecks dominate. U.S. interconnection queues hold ≈2,300 GW of generation/storage projects with median wait times >4 years. Distribution transformer lead times have increased four‑fold to ≈2 years. Without power, GPUs cannot run.

‍Memory and packaging racing to keep up. HBM shipments jumped from 3,150 million Gb in 2023 to 12,200 million Gb in 2024 and are expected to reach 23,700 million Gb in 2025. TSMC’s CoWoS capacity expanded from 13k wafers/month in 2023 to ≈40 k by late 2024, with a doubling planned by 2025.
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‍Networking standards at an inflection. InfiniBand commanded ~80 % of AI back‑end networks in early 2024, but Ethernet is closing the gap as 800 GbE ports become mainstream and 1600 GbE enters roadmaps. Vendors like Arista, Nvidia and Huawei vie for share.

‍Colocation growth concentrates. Equinix added 6,200 net interconnections in Q2 2025, bringing total interconnections to >492,000; bookings for the quarter were $345 M annualised across 4,100 deals. Digital Realty boasts >3,500 MW buildable capacity with 644 MW under construction. Demand for <1 MW deals is robust, yet large AI clusters now require tens of MW per site.

‍Rack density and cooling. Average rack density remains below 8 kW in most data centres, but AI workloads drive racks above 100 kW. Specialist operators like Colovore support 200 kW/rack; hyperscalers’ internal designs deliver 1 MW per rack using 400 V DC distribution and liquid cooling. Liquid cooling reduces cooling energy use by up to 50 % but adoption is still nascent.

‍GPU supply & vendor dominance. Nvidia shipped ~3.76 M data‑centre GPUs in 2023 with ~98 % market share. Total shipments may exceed 5 M in 2025, but supply is capped by HBM and CoWoS capacity. AMD and startups aim to gain share but are limited by packaging supply.

Why M&A now: four catalysts

Power scarcity creates “necessity deals.” Operators without long‑term PPAs or transformer allocations must acquire those who have them. Data‑centre REITs and hyperscalers will buy or fund power assets to secure scarce megawatts. Utilities and IPPs may form joint ventures or carve‑outs to monetise captive power.

‍Packaging & memory bottlenecks. CoWoS and HBM expansions require billions in capex; small chip firms cannot absorb these costs. Expect vertical integration (semiconductor vendors acquiring packaging houses) and horizontal deals among memory suppliers to secure capacity.

‍Networking transition resets the playing field. Ethernet’s ascent means incumbents (Nvidia’s InfiniBand) must defend share; meanwhile, vendors like Arista and Cisco seek scale. M&A will focus on acquiring optical module makers, chip design firms and software stacks to accelerate 800/1600 GbE deployment.

‍Capital normalisation & regulatory scrutiny. After unprecedented spending in 2023–24, funding markets have stabilised. REITs trade around 14–18× EV/EBITDA with heavy leverage; networking and semi vendors at 15–20× EV/Rev; private cooling vendors command >10× EV/Rev. Rising carbon disclosure requirements and local moratoria will push developers to acquire permits and renewable PPAs rather than build from scratch.

Evidence of an early up‑cycle in infra M&A

‍Platform bets dominate. In July 2025 CoreWeave announced a $9 B all‑stock acquisition of Core Scientific, repurposing 1.3 GW of crypto mining capacity for AI. HPE closed its $14 B acquisition of Juniper Networks to expand into networking and observability. Sanmina acquired AMD’s server manufacturing arm for up to $3 B. These deals show hyperscalers and OEMs securing hardware and network capacity.

‍Regional add‑ons accelerate. Harrison Street and 1547 bought DRFortress, Hawaii’s largest carrier‑neutral data centre, in April 2025—a classic bolt‑on to extend regional footprint and cross‑connect density.

‍Liquid cooling & packaging deals brewing. Private equity is funding liquid‑cooling specialists (Colovore raised $925 M in debt), and large chip firms are partnering with Amkor and ASE to expand packaging capacity. We expect acquisitions of cooling vendors and packaging fabs once metrics stabilise.

Where we see near-term deal flow (SME focus)

Colocation & interconnection – regional operators (<10 MW) with high cross‑connect density and strong booking pipelines are prime roll‑up candidates.

‍Power & micro‑grids – developers of renewable PPAs, SMR projects and transformer manufacturers will be in demand as power scarcity persists.

‍Semiconductor packaging & HBM supply – niche suppliers with CoWoS/SoIC expertise or HBM capacity may attract offers from chip giants.

‍Networking & optical – makers of 800/1600 GbE modules, co‑packaged optics and DPU/NIC startups; expect consolidation as standards converge.

‍Liquid cooling & densification – vendors certified by major OEMs (e.g., Iceotope, Colovore) and integrators able to retrofit existing facilities.

‍Observability & security – platforms with high ARR growth (>25 %) and integration into developer workflows are targets for larger hardware vendors seeking recurring revenue.

‍MSPs & FinOps – specialists offering AI deployment, FinOps and multi‑cloud integration skills will be sought by hyperscalers and enterprise IT services firms.

Why Tactica

‍Cross‑stack expertise. We understand the interplay between GPU supply, packaging capacity, cross‑connect pricing and PPA terms—critical to valuing and integrating these assets.

‍SME focus. We specialise in transactions below $150 M EV, where most European infra consolidation is happening. We structure creative consideration (cash, equity, earn‑outs tied to power capacity or ARR) and manage technical diligence across hardware and software stacks.

What this means for founders

If you’ve built differentiated capacity—whether power‑secured colocation, liquid‑cooling IP or AI‑ready networking stacks—but lack capital to scale, strategic M&A can be the quickest route to market. We help shape processes that maximise valuations by emphasising scarce assets (power rights, CoWoS capacity, certifications) and by bringing multiple consolidators to the table.

Bottom line

‍AI infrastructure today resembles other frontier industries on the cusp of consolidation: fragmented supply, concentrated demand, tightening capital, and clear bottlenecks. The metrics speak for themselves—HBM shipments quadrupling, cross‑connect counts approaching half a million, and billion‑dollar platform deals signalling strategic urgency. Power remains the gating resource: interconnection queues and transformer shortages will determine winners. We believe the next two to three years will see elevated M&A activity as consolidators secure scarce assets and as smaller players seek scale. Tactica is built for this moment.

‍Sources
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Interconnection queue and wait timesemp.lbl.gov; transformer lead timesresearch-hub.nrel.gov.HBM shipment and CoWoS capacity projectionsfiles.futurememorystorage.comgreenpeace.org.Networking standards and market sharedelloro.com.Equinix bookings and interconnection growthsec.govsec.gov.Colovore rack density and liquid‑cooling energy savingsdatacenterfrontier.comdatacenterfrontier.com; hyperscaler 1 MW rackstechradar.com.GPU shipment dominancedatacenterdynamics.com.Recent M&A deals and valuationsavisonyoung.us.

Market snapshot

Resilient demand, changing go-to-market. Efficient growth is the new default, and valuations as well as diligence rituals center on unit economics. Buyers dissect logo mix, mid-market versus enterprise exposure, GRR and NRR drivers by cohort, and the specific expansion motions that fuel durable growth. Proof of ROI is no longer a slide, it’s a dataset spanning time-to-value, payback, and gross margin after support and infra. In this backdrop, PLG and enterprise sales have effectively converged. The best teams blend product-qualified leads with focused account-based selling to compress onboarding, sharpen qualification, and clarify payback windows. That hybrid motion is also where moats form, because it connects product analytics to sales discipline and makes expansion less dependent on discounting.

Buyers want platform adjacency, not point-tool novelty. Suites continue to absorb formerly standalone features, and the standalone products that still win do so by owning a deep workflow, controlling a critical data asset, or addressing a regulatory must-have. This is why vertical SaaS outperforms: purpose-built systems that thread into an industry’s daily operations, and then layer in payments, fintech features, or data add-ons, tend to show superior retention, higher pricing leverage, and predictable expansion. Those profiles make them ideal roll-up cores where local champions can scale to regional leaders and then to EU-wide platforms.
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Why M&A now comes down to three structural catalysts

First, the cost of capital has created a “good-not-great” gap. Many solid products at €5–€20 million ARR, with decent NRR but slower new-logo velocity, won’t clear their next independent raise on founder-friendly terms. Combining with a strategic or platform buyer delivers distribution, security posture, and roadmap leverage that a small team would struggle to fund alone. Second, PE platform maturity is real. Multiple sponsors have already built scale assets across customer engagement, data observability, IT/Ops, and vertical markets; their theses are now pivoting from single-product efficiency to category expansion via add-ons in the €20–€100 million EV range, especially where cross-sell is obvious and integration is straightforward. Third, enterprise risk and data posture have moved to the front of every deal conversation. Compliance frameworks, data residency, AI governance, and vendor consolidation pressures push buyers toward fewer, trusted vendors. That favors an acquire-and-integrate strategy over building every module in-house and rewards targets that can snap into a buyer’s security and data model quickly.

Evidence of an up-cycle in software M&A shows up in the qualitative signals we track. “Sell the suite” acquirers are posting higher win rates against standalones in competitive evaluations, especially where security and data residency are in play. Vertical SaaS operators are attaching payments and usage-based components at a faster clip, which improves LTV, strengthens NRR, and generates the free cash flow that funds additional M&A. At the same time, we see more carve-outs and “tuck-unders” from venture portfolios that are prioritizing core bets and rationalizing long feature backlogs, fertile ground for buyers with tight integration playbooks.

Near-term deal flow is coalescing around a set of product areas where synergies are immediate and diligence is data-rich. In the Revenue and Customer Ops stack, quote-to-cash, billing, and RevOps analytics, targets are sticky inside finance and sales workflows, and they deliver quick synergies for platforms that need monetization plumbing and clearer revenue recognition. Security and compliance automation, identity, secrets, posture management, and data loss prevention, remains board-level spend with strong net retention and mandated controls in the mid-market and enterprise. These products are frequently the gating factor for enterprise deployments, which makes them natural strategic add-ons.

Data infrastructure and observability continue to anchor buyer theses because they come with clean ROI narratives. ELT connectors, lineage, cost governance, and FinOps tools save real money and unblock analytics and AI initiatives, so acquirers seek breadth of connectors, predictable performance, and credible cloud cost control angles. In IT/Ops and developer productivity, from pragmatic ITSM-lite and endpoint management to incident response, QA, and test automation, the seats are recurring and cross-departmental. These tools are easy to bundle into existing install bases and often share identity and telemetry layers with the buyer’s core platform, reducing integration lift.

Vertical SaaS with embedded payments or financing stands out for unit economics and defensibility. In healthcare, industrials, logistics, and professional services, the combination of workflow depth and financial rails supports superior retention, richer pricing metrics, and a clear path from local leader to regional roll-up. Buyers value these assets for their operating leverage and for the data exhaust that can be monetized responsibly through benchmarks, underwriting, or adjacent analytics products. In parallel, AI “co-pilots” with proprietary workflow and data access are most valuable as features inside distribution-rich platforms. For many acquirers, these are ideal acqui-hire plus tech tuck-in targets: the code and the team become force multipliers when placed inside an existing suite with thousands of active customers.

Our approach

Our underwriting approach is built to surface value and avoid surprises. We start with cohorts, modeling by vintage and segment to reveal the true NRR drivers, seat growth versus pricing versus genuine product expansion, and to detect hidden churn risk where usage fades before renewals. We examine payback with a forward view, separating paid and product-led funnels, normalizing CAC by channel, and running sensitivity to discounting, procurement frictions, and sales cycle elongation. We interrogate pricing power and packaging by stress-testing willingness-to-pay, mapping SKU sprawl, and evaluating the feasibility of moving from flat seat pricing to value-based metrics that align with outcomes. Finally, we insist on integration realism, mapping identity models, data planes, and go-to-market compatibility to estimate cross-sell velocity and the engineering lift required post-close. That’s how we turn a thesis into a credible year-one operating plan.

Why Tactica

Tactica’s edge is practical and local. We are SaaS natives who have operated and advised across PLG and enterprise-sales motions, billing and usage infrastructure, and data and security stacks, so we speak the language of ARR bridges, cohort math, and board-ready KPI narratives. We’re built for sub-€150 million transactions, the heart of today’s software consolidation, where speed, confidentiality, and curated buyer sets matter. Our processes are tight and thesis-led, pairing PE platforms and strategics with ready integrations and thoughtful consideration structures that can include cash, earn-outs, and retention pools to keep the right people focused on the right milestones.

Our focus point in CEE, with Warsaw as a hub, expands the opportunity set. We tap exceptional technical founders across Poland, the Baltics, and the broader CEE, where engineering depth and capital efficiency are the norm. We also help acquirers passport offerings across the EU, compressing compliance timelines and unlocking larger TAM on day one. That combination shortens diligence and integration cycles and improves post-close execution.

What this means for founders?

What this means for founders is straightforward. If you have strong NRR, clean cohorts, and genuine line-of-business depth but you’re running into GTM scaling headwinds, a strategic or platform buyer can 10× your distribution and accelerate roadmap credibility. We run confidential, targeted processes with pre-qualified buyers, preserving leverage while maximizing strategic fit and integration certainty. For acquirers, if your platform needs adjacent modules, compliance credibility, or EU localization, now is the moment to buy capabilities with real cohorts, proven ROI, and ready integrations, before pricing power consolidates further in the hands of a few.

Bottom line

The bottom line is that B2B software is in a classic consolidation phase. Demand is resilient, funding is tighter but rational, and buyers with distribution have a structural advantage. The winners will own workflows, data, and trust. Our job at Tactica is to match those assets with the right platforms, structure deals around real unit economics, and deliver integrations that compound value in year one and beyond.

Sources
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SoftwareEquity Group, Annual SaaS Report 2025; PwC, Technology Deals 2025 Midyear Outlook; ChartMogul, SaaS Retention Benchmarks; CB Insights, State of AI 2025; Bain & Company, Global M&A Report 2025; Battery Ventures, State of the OpenCloud 2025; Gartner, Market Guide for Revenue Management and CPQ; IDC, Worldwide Security & Trust Forecast 2025; McKinsey, Cloud and FinOps Perspectives 2025.